Preseason Rankings
North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#22
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace77.4#26
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#67
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.7% 3.3% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 7.5% 8.9% 2.2%
Top 4 Seed 20.4% 23.6% 8.2%
Top 6 Seed 34.9% 39.6% 17.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.0% 70.2% 45.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 63.1% 68.4% 43.6%
Average Seed 6.3 6.1 7.3
.500 or above 87.1% 90.9% 72.4%
.500 or above in Conference 68.6% 74.7% 44.8%
Conference Champion 5.3% 6.3% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.9% 5.2%
First Four4.2% 4.2% 4.4%
First Round63.0% 68.2% 42.7%
Second Round42.5% 46.8% 25.9%
Sweet Sixteen20.6% 23.2% 10.7%
Elite Eight9.4% 10.7% 4.5%
Final Four4.1% 4.7% 1.6%
Championship Game1.7% 2.0% 0.7%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.3%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Home) - 79.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 11
Quad 34 - 115 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 75   Georgia Tech W 80-71 79%    
  Nov 10, 2019 219   Detroit Mercy W 94-75 96%    
  Nov 13, 2019 185   Florida International W 101-83 95%    
  Nov 16, 2019 293   St. Francis Brooklyn W 89-66 98%    
  Nov 19, 2019 345   Alcorn St. W 90-61 99.6%   
  Nov 23, 2019 220   Arkansas Little Rock W 90-71 95%    
  Nov 28, 2019 26   Memphis W 89-88 51%    
  Dec 04, 2019 33   Wisconsin W 73-69 63%    
  Dec 07, 2019 91   @ Wake Forest W 81-76 65%    
  Dec 15, 2019 96   @ UNC Greensboro W 79-74 68%    
  Dec 19, 2019 25   @ Auburn L 79-82 40%    
  Dec 22, 2019 306   The Citadel W 102-78 98%    
  Dec 29, 2019 212   Appalachian St. W 94-75 95%    
  Jan 04, 2020 81   @ Clemson W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 08, 2020 41   Notre Dame W 78-73 65%    
  Jan 11, 2020 85   @ Virginia Tech W 74-71 62%    
  Jan 15, 2020 63   Miami (FL) W 81-74 72%    
  Jan 18, 2020 81   Clemson W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 20, 2020 10   @ Virginia L 63-70 29%    
  Jan 25, 2020 75   @ Georgia Tech W 77-74 58%    
  Jan 27, 2020 5   North Carolina L 88-91 40%    
  Feb 01, 2020 6   Louisville L 77-80 40%    
  Feb 05, 2020 63   @ Miami (FL) W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 11, 2020 59   @ Syracuse W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 16, 2020 101   @ Boston College W 81-75 68%    
  Feb 19, 2020 3   Duke L 83-87 38%    
  Feb 22, 2020 18   Florida St. W 80-78 58%    
  Feb 25, 2020 5   @ North Carolina L 85-94 23%    
  Feb 29, 2020 72   Pittsburgh W 81-73 75%    
  Mar 02, 2020 3   @ Duke L 80-90 21%    
  Mar 06, 2020 91   Wake Forest W 84-73 80%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 5.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 2.6 1.1 0.2 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.5 3.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.0 3.2 1.0 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.6 3.6 1.1 0.1 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.5 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 3.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.4 3.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.0 0.8 0.1 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.5 0.8 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.1 1.2 0.1 4.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.5 4.0 5.5 7.6 9.2 10.0 11.1 11.0 10.3 9.0 7.3 4.9 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
18-2 87.5% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
17-3 58.6% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 23.8% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 5.7% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 65.6% 34.4% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.5% 100.0% 32.3% 67.7% 1.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.9% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 2.2 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.9% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 2.9 0.5 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.3% 99.9% 11.2% 88.7% 3.9 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 9.0% 99.8% 8.9% 90.9% 5.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 10.3% 98.1% 5.4% 92.7% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 98.0%
12-8 11.0% 94.2% 3.2% 91.1% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.6 94.0%
11-9 11.1% 78.7% 1.1% 77.6% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.4 78.4%
10-10 10.0% 58.9% 1.1% 57.8% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 4.1 58.5%
9-11 9.2% 30.8% 0.6% 30.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.4 30.4%
8-12 7.6% 9.6% 0.3% 9.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.9 9.3%
7-13 5.5% 2.9% 0.1% 2.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.4 2.8%
6-14 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.2%
5-15 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 2.5
4-16 1.6% 1.6
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 65.0% 5.0% 59.9% 6.3 2.7 4.8 6.4 6.5 7.1 7.5 6.6 6.4 5.8 5.2 4.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 35.0 63.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 94.3 5.7